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Report of Workshop on Predictability and Limits to Prediction in Hydrologic

Anthony Wells

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Published in Report Of A Workshop On Predictability And Limits To Prediction In Hydrologic Systems

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This workshop was held in response to the growing need for better predictions of hydrologic systems. As the world's population and economy continue to grow, so too does the demand for water resources. At the same time, climate change is making hydrologic systems more unpredictable. This combination of factors is putting a strain on water resources and making it difficult to plan for the future.

Report of a Workshop on Predictability and Limits-To-Prediction in Hydrologic Systems

by Leslie Day

4.7 out of 5

Language	:	English
File size	:	1352 KB
Text-to-Speech	:	Enabled
Screen Reader	:	Supported
Enhanced typesetting	:	Enabled
Word Wise	:	Enabled
Print length	:	128 pages

The goal of this workshop was to bring together experts from a variety of disciplines to discuss the current state of the art in predictability and limits to prediction in hydrologic systems. The workshop participants included hydrologists, climate scientists, statisticians, and economists. The workshop was organized into four sessions:

Predictability of hydrologic systems
Limits to prediction in hydrologic systems
Implications of predictability and limits to prediction for water resources management
Research needs

Predictability of Hydrologic Systems

The first session of the workshop focused on the predictability of hydrologic systems. The participants discussed the different factors that affect predictability, including the physical characteristics of the system, the availability of data, and the models used to make predictions.

The participants concluded that hydrologic systems are inherently unpredictable. This is because they are complex systems that are influenced by a variety of factors, many of which are beyond our control. However, the participants also concluded that it is possible to make useful predictions of hydrologic systems, provided that we understand the limits to predictability.

Limits to Prediction in Hydrologic Systems

The second session of the workshop focused on the limits to prediction in hydrologic systems. The participants discussed the different sources of uncertainty in hydrologic predictions, including uncertainty in the input data, uncertainty in the models, and uncertainty in the future climate. The participants discussed the impact of uncertainty on consumers of hydrologic information, and the importance of communicating uncertainty to decision-makers.

The participants concluded that it is impossible to make perfect predictions of hydrologic systems. This is because there are always some sources of uncertainty that cannot be eliminated. However, the participants also concluded that it is possible to make useful and reliable predictions, provided that decision-makers are aware of the uncertainties involved.

Implications of Predictability and Limits to Prediction for Water Resources Management

The third session of the workshop focused on the implications of predictability and limits to prediction for water resources management. The participants discussed the different ways that predictability and limits to prediction can affect water resources management decisions. The participants discussed the importance of considering uncertainty when making water resources management decisions, and the importance of communicating uncertainty to stakeholders.

The participants concluded that predictability and limits to prediction have a significant impact on water resources management. Decision-makers need to be aware of the uncertainties involved in hydrologic predictions, and they need to consider these uncertainties when making decisions. The participants also concluded that it is important to communicate uncertainty to stakeholders, so that they can make informed decisions about water resources management.

Research Needs

The fourth session of the workshop focused on research needs. The participants discussed the different areas where more research is needed to improve the predictability of hydrologic systems and to reduce the limits to prediction. The participants discussed the need for research on new data collection methods, new models, and new methods for communicating uncertainty.

The participants concluded that there is a need for more research on predictability and limits to prediction in hydrologic systems. This research will help us to improve the accuracy and reliability of hydrologic predictions, and it will help us to make better decisions about water resources management.

This workshop brought together experts from a variety of disciplines to discuss the current state of the art in predictability and limits to prediction in hydrologic systems. The participants concluded that hydrologic systems are inherently unpredictable, but that it is possible to make useful predictions, provided that we understand the limits to predictability. The participants also concluded that predictability and limits to prediction have a significant impact on water resources management decisions, and that decision-makers need to be aware of the uncertainties involved in hydrologic predictions.

The workshop participants identified a number of research needs, including the need for research on new data collection methods, new models, and new methods for communicating uncertainty. This research will help us to improve the predictability of hydrologic systems and to reduce the limits to prediction. It will also help us to make better decisions about water resources management.

Report of a Workshop on Predictability and Limits-To-Prediction in Hydrologic Systems

by Leslie Day

4.7 out of 5